Thursday, April 10 - 6 p.m., Yenching Auditorium (2 Divinity Avenue)
Mind/Brain/Behavior Distinguished Lecture: The Perception of Probability
Randy Gallistel (Psychology and Cognitive Science, Rutgers, http://ruccs.rutgers.edu/~galliste/)
Probabilistic models of cognitive processes are enjoying a huge vogue in contemporary theorizing in the cognitive and neurosciences, but there is little work on how we perceive simple probabilities. Such work as there is, assumes that the brain updates its estimate of a probability on a trial by trial basis. I present experimental data showing that this is not true; the estimated probability may remain constant for hundreds of trials. Yet, the estimate can change by very large amounts from one trial to the next. I present a model of the process that accommodates both of these seemingly contradictory facts. And I suggest that the principles underlying the model have broad application in perception. Post-talk commentary by Professor Richard Born, Harvard Medical School